First half of the article
When airlines in a country of Nigeria’s size begin to contemplate a nationwide shutdown due to the skyrocketing price of aviation fuel, the issue should not be treated as a routine commercial dispute. It is a warning signal of a deeper problem—a system under strain.
At such a moment, the relevant questions are about resilience: whether the country has built sufficient shock absorbers into the fuel supply chains that sustain modern life, particularly in the face of a global energy crisis.
That is how the current aviation fuel crisis should be understood: not merely as a matter of Jet A1 prices, but of the structure beneath it.
In my earlier columns—The Emerging Global Energy Crisis and the Shock Absorbers of States (Part 1) and The Emerging Global Energy Crisis and Nigeria’s Missing Shock Absorbers (Part 2), published on March 23 and March 30, respectively—I argued that the difference between resilient states and vulnerable ones lies not only in resources but also in system design. Some countries absorb shocks. Others transmit them. Nigeria, too often, transmits.
The aviation fuel crisis now unfolding is a clear demonstration of that condition.
The immediate strain
The facts are stark. Domestic airlines, through the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), warned that they could suspend all operations nationwide from today, Monday, April 20, 2026, following a dramatic surge in the price of aviation fuel. Jet A1, which sold for about ?900 per litre as of late February 2026, has, in some cases, risen to as high as ?3,300 per litre within weeks—representing a surge of over 300 percent in under two months, amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Fuel now accounts for roughly 40 percent of operating costs for Nigerian carriers—well above the global range of 25 to 30 percent. Airlines argue that revenues are no longer sufficient to sustain fuel costs, alongside other dollar-linked obligations—maintenance, insurance, and leasing.
The Federal Government has urged restraint and scheduled an emergency meeting for Wednesday, April 22. At the same time, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has disputed the airlines’ claims, stating that prevailing prices range between ?1,960 and ?2,800 per litre (roughly 118 to 211 percent above the February baseline of about ?900 per litre). NMDPRA also claimed Nigeria holds a 74-day supply of aviation fuel.
That contrast is revealing. It suggests that the crisis is not only one of physical scarcity, but also of uneven market conditions. The wide price range reflects distribution bottlenecks. Fuel may exist within the system, but not under uniform pricing or access conditions. What is unfolding is not only a supply problem, but ultimately a structural one.
From global shock to domestic constraint
The trigger for this crisis lies beyond Nigeria’s borders. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global energy markets. Jet fuel, which operates within a narrower and more sensitive supply chain than crude oil, has been especially affected.
Supply tightened, prices rose, and logistics costs escalated. Import-dependent regions began to compete aggressively for available cargoes. In that environment, refined products—including those produced in Nigeria—naturally flowed toward higher-paying markets. A distant conflict becomes a domestic price shock. As supply tightens, prices adjust across all interconnected markets. Local production becomes tied to international markets, forcing domestic consumers to compete with global demand.
Currency mismatch is the second structural weakness. Domestic airlines earn in naira. But many costs are dollar-denominated or globally indexed. When fuel prices rise and the domestic currency remains weak, the strain becomes immediate.
This creates a tension between supply and affordability. Supply may exist, but affordability may collapse. A market can be supplied yet functionally inaccessible. That is the position in which Nigerian aviation now finds itself.
A system without buffers: The limits of a single anchor
The deeper issue is…
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