First half of the article

•Part I: Investigating 8,000–9,000 MW of unavailable capacity

TODAY, I begin a four-part investigation into Nigeria’s power sector, drawing principally on Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) quarterly reports covering April 2025 to March 2026. The objectives are to trace where Nigeria loses electricity and money; identify the causesand who bears the consequences; and determine what reforms could recover capacity. According to NERC, Nigeria had 13,625 megawatts (MW) of installed grid-connected generation capacity during the period. Yet average available capacity was only 5,395.72 MW in the second quarter of 2025, 5,430.34 MW in the third and 5,400.38 MW in the fourth. By the first quarter of 2026, it had fallen to 4,457.96 MW. In other words, roughly 8,000–9,000 MW of installed generating capacity was unavailable. Where did those megawatts go?

This series follows electricity from installed capacity through availability, generation, transmission, distribution, billing and collection, before asking what taxpayers ultimately subsidise.We begin at the power stations.

Installed capacity versus available capacity

Installed capacity is the maximum output for which a power station is designed and rated. If five generating units are rated at 100 MW each, installed capacity is 500 MW. But turbine failure, maintenance or inadequate gas supply may leave only 200 MW capable of operating, an availability factor of 40 per cent. That 200 MW is not necessarily the plant’s actual generation, as Part II will show. For this analysis, I calculated a day-weighted 12-month availability factor for each of the 28 plants from NERC’s quarterly average available-capacity data, and classified them as Critical—25 per cent or below; Poor—above 25 to 50 per cent; Moderate—above 50 to 75 per cent; and Strong—above 75 per cent. These are my analytical classifications, not NERC ratings.

Critical: 25 per cent or lower availability

Eleven plants fell into the Critical category. Together, they represented 4,816 MW of installed capacity, but averaged only about 427 MW available, leaving roughly 4,389 MW unavailable. Alaoji, with 500 MW installed, recorded zero availability. Sapele Steam’s 720 MW translated into only about 23 MW average available capacity, or 3.1 per cent. Ibom Power averaged 6.2 per cent, Trans Amadi 6.6 per cent, Olorunsogo II 9.3 per cent, Afam I 9.9 per cent, Omotosho II 10.0 per cent, Ihovbor I 10.9 per cent, Rivers 14.4 per cent, Sapele II 16.6 per cent and Omoku 20.4 per cent.

Poor: Above 25 per cent to 50 per cent availability

Another nine plants fell into the Poor category. Together, they represented 5,080 MW of installed capacity, averaging about 2,040 MW available and leaving roughly 3,040 MW unavailable. Odukpani averaged 28.2 per cent availability, Afam II 29.5 per cent, Olorunsogo I 31.5 per cent, Omotosho I 33.1 per cent, Geregu II 36.0 per cent, Igbafọ 42.4 per cent, Geregu I 47.7 per cent, Delta 48.2 per cent and Egbin 48.4 per cent.

Egbin, Nigeria’s largest grid-connected station, has1,320 MW installed but averaged only about 639 MW available, leaving roughly 681 MW unavailable. Together, the Critical and Poor plants accounted for about 9,896 MW installed, but only about 2,467 MW was available on average. Roughly 7,429 MW of already-built power capacity was therefore unavailable for dispatch and could not be used to power homes, farms, factories and other economic activities.

Moderate: Above 50 per cent to 75 per cent availability

Only four plants were Moderate: Okpai at 58.3 per cent, Shiroro 59.4 per cent, Dadin-Kowa 63.9 per cent and Kainji 66.1 per cent. Okpai was the only thermal plant; the other three were hydro. NERC attributed increased availability at Dadin-Kowa, Zungeru, Shiroro and Jebba in Q3 2025 to rainy-season inflows. In Q1 2026, available capacity across all five hydro plants fell 28.8 per cent, largely because of the dry season, with repairs and maintenance affecting some units.

Strong: Above 75 per cent availability

Only four plants were Strong: Zungeru at 77.1 per cent, Jebba 81.1 per cent, Ihovbor II—Azura-Edo—92.4 per cent and Ikeja/Paras…

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